Sarah House noted job growth has been strong in recent months but added that’s expected to change, pointing to “some cracks under the surface.” In a separate presentation from the other panelists, a managing director and senior economist for Wells Fargo’s Corporate and Investment Bank said a soft landing is possible - but not likely. “Usually the playbook is central banks hike interest rates and then that leads to a slowdown and a recession … I suspect we’ll see some kind of dynamic along those lines.”īut he and other speakers expressed uncertainty about the likelihood of a “soft landing” versus a “hard landing,” where regulatory efforts to stave off inflation lead to a more severe economic downturn. “You don’t come off peak inflation rates like that historically without a recession at the end,” he said. But he noted peak inflation rates - like last year’s rate of around 9 percent - are usually followed by recessionary periods. Todd Mattina, head economist for the State of Wisconsin Investment Board, said he and other economists need to be “cautious” about forecasting recessions given the uncertainty involved. And if a recession is deep, it could exacerbate the housing shortage and demand tougher budgeting at the state level. That could be bad timing for President Biden, who is seeking reelection next year. economy is likely headed for a recession later this year as federal officials continue their efforts to tamp down inflation. It was organized by , and the Wisconsin Bankers Association.Īt the event, national and Wisconsin experts agreed the U.S. The Wisconsin Economic Forecast Luncheon was held in late April in Madison. So maybe it shouldn’t be a surprise that a recent gathering of smart financial minds in Madison resulted in a consensus recession forecast.
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